Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-Score measures how far Bitcoin’s market value has moved above or below its realized value, scaled by how volatile market value has been over Bitcoin’s history. A high reading means the price sits well above the average cost at which coins last moved on-chain; a low reading means it sits near or below that cost basis.

How the score is calculated

MVRV Z-Score = (Market cap − Realized cap) ÷ Standard deviation of market cap

• Market cap is price multiplied by circulating supply.
• Realized cap values each coin at its price when it last moved on-chain and sums the results, approximating what holders collectively paid.
• Standard deviation is taken over market cap’s full history, turning the gap into a z-score: the number of standard deviations market value sits from realized value.

Hypothetical example: if market cap is $1.5 trillion, realized cap is $1.0 trillion and the standard deviation is $0.5 trillion, the score is (1.5 − 1.0) ÷ 0.5 = 1.0.

Values are calculated daily by Fintrev from Coin Metrics community data.

Reading the zones

Each daily value falls in an undervalued, fair value or overvalued zone. Negative readings mean market cap is below realized cap, so the average holder is underwater. Since July 2010 the series has ranged from −0.69 to 23.31, with the highest readings near cycle peaks and readings near or below zero near cycle lows.

The score can move without any change in holder behavior. A sharp price rally widens the gap almost immediately, while realized cap shifts slowly because it changes only when coins move.

Limits

The denominator uses all of Bitcoin’s history and grows with market cap, so later cycle peaks have produced lower readings than earlier ones and a fixed “top” threshold can stop working. Lost coins stay in realized cap at their old, low prices, and coins moved between wallets for custody or exchange reasons get repriced without any sale. The score also gives no timing: Bitcoin can stay in one zone for months, so many readers pair it with the Bitcoin 200 week moving average or the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart.