Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply Chart

Long-term holder supply is the amount of bitcoin sitting in coins that have not moved on-chain for a set holding period. The common convention puts that cutoff at about 155 days, and coins older than it count as long-term holder (LTH) supply. Providers can set their own thresholds, so compare levels only across charts built on the same definition.

How the metric changes

The figure moves for two different reasons, and the cause changes what a move means.

• Rising supply comes mostly from aging. Coins bought or moved about five months earlier cross the threshold and join the total. A climb today often reflects accumulation that happened months ago, not buying this week.
• Falling supply happens when old coins move. Once a long-dormant output is spent, its full amount leaves the LTH total immediately. A sharp drop therefore shows experienced holders moving coins now.

This makes the line asymmetric. It rises gradually and can fall fast. On the chart, a falling stretch is labeled Distribution and a rising one Accumulation, which you can read against the BTC price plotted on a log scale.

Reading it alongside price

Over long cycles, long-term holders have tended to add coins (through aging) while prices are weak and to spend into strong rallies. Comparing the supply line with price helps place a move in that pattern. It does not time tops or bottoms. Pair it with Bitcoin exchange balance to see whether moved coins are heading to trading venues. The MVRV Z-Score is a valuation check on how far the market sits above its aggregate cost basis.

Limits

• A move is not a sale. Custodians consolidating wallets, exchanges reshuffling cold storage, or a holder upgrading to a new address all reset coin age without any change in ownership.
• Lost coins stay in the total. Bitcoin that will never move keeps counting as long-term supply, which inflates the baseline.
• Daily data is noisy. Small day-to-day swings are routine. The 30-day change and the longer-range view say more about direction than a single reading.