CBBI: Bitcoin Bull Run Index Historical Chart

The CBBI (ColinTalksCrypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index) scores, from 0 to 100, how confident a set of on-chain and price-based models are that bitcoin is approaching a cycle top. A high reading means most of its inputs resemble conditions seen near past peaks. A low reading means they resemble conditions seen near past bottoms. The score values the market’s position in its cycle. It does not forecast next week’s price.

How it’s calculated

The index takes several established Bitcoin metrics, rescales each to a 0 to 100 range against its own history, and averages them into one confidence figure. Its components have included the Pi Cycle Top indicator, the MVRV Z-Score, the Puell Multiple, the RHODL ratio, Reserve Risk, the 2-Year Moving Average multiplier, and a logarithmic trend line similar to the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart. Because the score is an average, one metric flashing extreme cannot carry it alone. A high CBBI requires broad agreement among the inputs.

How to read the chart

The confidence line is plotted against BTC price on a log scale, with daily readings back to June 2011. The zone bands (Low confidence, Mid cycle, Near peak) translate the number into a cycle stage. Compare the current reading with the 30-day and 1-year averages to see the direction of travel. A score drifting down from a Mid cycle reading is a different situation from one climbing toward Near peak, even if both show the same value on a given day.

Limits

The models are calibrated on only a few completed Bitcoin cycles, so each new cycle tests whether old patterns still apply. Rescaling depends on historical extremes, which means a reading of 100 marks agreement with past tops, not a guaranteed top. The index can stay elevated or depressed for months, and its inputs ignore macro events, ETF demand and regulation. It works best as one cycle gauge among several, for example alongside the 200-week moving average and the sentiment-based Fear and Greed Index.