Bitcoin Bull Market Peak Signals: Cycle Top Indicators
| # | Indicator | Current | Reference | Hit or not | Distance to hit | Progress | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pi Cycle Top Indicator | 0.506 | ≥ 1.000 | Not hit | 49.4% | 50.6% | |
| 2 | Puell Multiple | 0.77 | ≥ 4.00 | Not hit | 80.8% | 19.2% | |
| 3 | Bitcoin Rainbow Chart | 2 / 9 | ≥ 8 / 9 | Not hit | 75.0% | 25.0% | History |
| 4 | MVRV Z-Score | 0.46 | ≥ 5.00 | Not hit | 90.7% | 9.3% | History |
| 5 | Bitcoin 2-Year MA Multiplier | 0.146 | ≥ 1.000 | Not hit | 85.4% | 14.6% | |
| 6 | Mayer Multiple | 0.89 | ≥ 2.40 | Not hit | 62.9% | 37.1% | |
| 7 | Altcoin Season Index | 46 | ≥ 75 | Not hit | 38.7% | 61.3% | History |
| 8 | Bitcoin Dominance | 58.67% | ≤ 40.00% | Not hit | 31.1% | 68.9% | History |
| 9 | Fear & Greed Index (7d avg) | 23 | ≥ 80 | Not hit | 71.3% | 28.7% | History |
| 10 | AHR999 Index | 0.31 | ≥ 4.00 | Not hit | 92.3% | 7.7% | History |
| 11 | RSI · 22 day | 26.4 | ≥ 80.0 | Not hit | 67.0% | 33.0% | |
| 12 | CBBI Index | 41.7 | ≥ 90.0 | Not hit | 53.6% | 46.4% | History |
| 13 | LTH SOPR | 0.93 | ≥ 10.00 | Not hit | 90.7% | 9.3% | History |
| 14 | NUPL | 0.284 | ≥ 0.750 | Not hit | 62.2% | 37.8% | |
| 15 | Reserve Risk | 0.0005 | ≥ 0.0200 | Not hit | 97.6% | 2.4% | |
| 16 | MVRV Ratio | 1.27 | ≥ 3.70 | Not hit | 65.8% | 34.2% | |
| 17 | Realized Price Ratio | 1.21 | ≥ 3.00 | Not hit | 59.7% | 40.3% | History |
| 18 | 200-Week MA Ratio | 0.96 | ≥ 4.00 | Not hit | 76.0% | 24.0% | History |
| 19 | Balanced Price Ratio | 2.22 | ≥ 4.00 | Not hit | 44.4% | 55.6% | History |
| 20 | Funding Rate (30d avg, Binance) | 0.0070% | ≥ 0.0500% | Not hit | 86.0% | 14.0% | History |
A bull market peak indicator dashboard tracks 20 Bitcoin cycle top indicators and asks one question of each: has it crossed the level associated with past cycle tops? The headline count shows how many have triggered. Average progress is the mean of the 20 individual progress figures.
How progress and distance are calculated
Each row compares a current reading with a reference threshold. For “at or above” thresholds:
- Progress = current reading ÷ threshold
- Distance to hit = 100% − progress
Hypothetical example: if a ratio reads 2.0 against a threshold of 4.0, progress is 50% and distance is 50%. Bitcoin Dominance works the other way. Its signal fires when dominance falls to or below the threshold, so the ratio is inverted: progress rises as dominance drops.
A row flips to “Hit” only when the threshold is actually crossed. A reading at 95% progress still counts as not hit.
What the indicators measure
The 20 signals fall into a few groups:
- Valuation against cost basis: MVRV Ratio, MVRV Z-Score, NUPL, Realized Price Ratio and Balanced Price Ratio compare market price with prices derived from on-chain data.
- Price against moving averages: Pi Cycle Top, Mayer Multiple, the 2-Year MA Multiplier and the 200-week moving average ratio.
- Miner and holder behavior: Puell Multiple, LTH SOPR and Reserve Risk.
- Sentiment and leverage: the Fear & Greed Index, 22-day RSI and the 30-day average Binance funding rate.
- Rotation: the Altcoin Season Index and Bitcoin Dominance.
Limits of the dashboard
The thresholds are calibrated to a small number of past cycles. Nothing guarantees a future top will reach the same levels.
Several rows also share inputs. MVRV Ratio and Realized Price Ratio both divide market price by realized price, so they move together. A rising count can therefore overstate how independent the evidence is.
Linear progress can also mislead. An indicator at 50% may need a far larger price move to finish than another at the same percentage.
The Hold or Sell verdict summarizes how many signals have triggered. It does not forecast price, and it says nothing about your timing, tax position or risk tolerance.
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