Bitcoin 200 Week Moving Average Heatmap

The Bitcoin 200 week moving average (200WMA) is the average BTC closing price over the last 200 weeks, about 1,400 days or roughly 3.8 years. Because the window is so long, the line moves slowly and filters out most of Bitcoin’s short-term swings. In past major market cycles, BTC’s price has tended to bottom out near this level, which is why long-term holders watch it as a historical floor.

How the heatmap zones work

Each day falls into a zone based on the ratio of price to the moving average:

Ratio = BTC price ÷ 200-week moving average

• Below 200WMA: ratio under 1. Price trades beneath its long-run average.
• 0 to 100% above: ratio from 1 to 2.
• 100%+ above: ratio of 2 or more. Price is at least double its long-run average, a level associated with overheated markets in earlier cycles.

Hypothetical example: if the 200WMA were $50,000 and BTC closed at $60,000, the ratio would be 1.2, which falls in the 0 to 100% zone. If BTC then climbed to $110,000 while the average stayed near $50,000, the ratio would be 2.2, and the day would move into the 100%+ zone.

The figure here is calculated from BTC daily closes and updates daily. It is a simple moving average, so every close in the window carries equal weight. A 200-week EMA weights recent prices more heavily and will read differently.

Limits

The 200WMA is a lagging measure. It describes where price has been, not where it will go, and its “floor” role rests on a small number of past cycles. Price can stay in one zone for long stretches and can break below the line. Pairing it with valuation measures such as the MVRV Z-Score or the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart gives a second view of whether price is stretched relative to history.