Crypto Liquidation Max Pain: Bitcoin and Ethereum Max Pain Levels

Liquidation max pain is the price level where the largest estimated block of leveraged futures positions would be forcibly closed. Every symbol has two candidates: a cluster of long liquidations below the current price and a cluster of short liquidations above it. The max pain level is the one the model marks as the more significant of the pair. For each coin in the ranking, it shows where a move would trigger the heaviest wave of forced selling or buying, and how far price is from that level in volatility terms.

What the levels represent

Perpetual futures and other crypto derivatives are traded on margin. A trader who opens a 20x long needs only a 5% adverse move (less after fees and maintenance margin) before the exchange closes the position. Major perpetual exchanges trigger these liquidations from a mark price rather than the last trade, and they close the position at market.

Because many traders open positions near the same prices and use similar leverage, their liquidation prices bunch together. A long liquidation is a forced sell, so a cluster of long liquidations below price can push price lower when it is reached. A short liquidation is a forced buy, so a cluster above price can push price higher. When a large cluster is hit, each round of forced market orders moves price into the next set of liquidation prices. That cascade is what produces sharp wicks on the chart. A common market view holds that large traders sometimes drive price into these pockets of liquidity and then reverse, but a cluster’s size measures only how much could be liquidated there, not anyone’s intent to target it.

Reading the force field and the ranking

The BTC pain force field shows estimated long liquidations below the current price and short liquidations above it, with the max pain level marked. Lopsided bars indicate which side holds more leverage that could be wiped out.

The ranking table puts the same information side by side for each symbol. You can filter it to All, Pull up or Pull down.

• Nearest long cluster / Nearest short cluster: the closest significant liquidation level below and above price, with the estimated dollar value that would be liquidated there.
• Long liq. below / Short liq. above: the total estimated liquidations on each side, not just at the nearest cluster. A side can have a small nearest cluster and a large total spread across levels further away.
• 24h touch odds: two probabilities, in the same order as the cluster columns (below, then above). Each is the estimated chance that price reaches that cluster within 24 hours.
• Pull: the direction the model assigns to the liquidation imbalance, up or down.
• Max pain: the single level selected as max pain. It is one of the two nearest clusters.
• Daily σ: the symbol’s daily volatility, expressed as one standard deviation of daily returns.

Pull and Max pain can disagree. A coin can show Pull “Up” while its max pain level sits below price. In that case the larger nearby cluster is under the price, but more liquidations in total are stacked above. Read the two columns together rather than treating either one as a forecast.

Distance in volatility terms

A level 3% away means different things for a coin with 2% daily volatility and one with 4%. Dividing distance by daily σ puts them on the same scale:

Distance in σ = (cluster price − current price) ÷ current price ÷ daily σ

Hypothetical example: a coin trades at $100 with a daily σ of 3%. Its long cluster at $97 is 3% away, or one σ. Its short cluster at $110 is 10% away, about 3.3σ. Even if the short cluster is larger, the long cluster is far more likely to be touched within a day, and a bigger cluster several σ away can carry near-zero 24h touch odds.

What moves the levels

Clusters are not fixed. They shift as positions open, close and get liquidated:

• New open interest at a price adds future liquidation levels at prices set by the leverage used. Rising open interest during a rally builds up long liquidation levels below.
• Liquidations remove clusters. Once a cluster is hit, those positions no longer exist, so the level disappears from the next update.
• Funding and positioning affect how crowded each side is. Persistently positive funding rates mean longs are paying shorts, which can point to a long-heavy market with more liquidation levels beneath price.
• Volatility changes the daily σ, and with it the touch odds, even when the clusters themselves stay put.

Liquidation max pain vs. options max pain

The two terms share a name but measure different things. Options max pain is the strike price at which the most option contracts would expire worthless, which minimizes the total payout to option buyers at expiry. It comes from options open interest by strike and is tied to a specific expiry date.

Liquidation max pain comes from leveraged futures positions, has no expiry, and identifies where forced closures would be largest. A Bitcoin options max pain strike and a BTC liquidation max pain level can sit far apart.

Limits of the data

Every figure here is a model estimate. Exchanges do not publish each trader’s liquidation price, so the levels are inferred from candles and open interest on Binance, OKX and Bybit, refreshed every five minutes, and rely on assumptions about where positions were opened and how much leverage they carry. Traders who add margin, set stop losses or close early never get liquidated at the estimated price, and positions held on other exchanges are not included.

Touch odds are probabilities, not signals. A 35% chance of reaching a cluster still means price is more likely not to reach it within the day. Price can also hit a level and keep moving, or reverse at it. Order book depth, spot demand and news decide what price actually does when it gets there.