Bitcoin Balanced Price Model Chart

The Bitcoin balanced price is an on-chain estimate of a long-term price floor. It combines two cost-based measures of the Bitcoin network: the realized price and the transferred price. The chart plots it daily against the market price on a log scale, so you can see how far BTC trades above or below that floor.

How the balanced price is calculated

Balanced price = realized price − transferred price

• Realized price is the average price at which every coin last moved on-chain. It approximates the network’s aggregate cost basis.
• Transferred price is built from cumulative coin days destroyed, a measure that weights each spent coin by how long it sat unmoved. When long-dormant coins move, this value rises.

Subtracting the transferred price from the realized price pulls the estimate below the average cost basis. The result is a more conservative level that tends to change slowly. It does not track daily market swings.

Reading the zones

The zone label comes from the ratio of market price to balanced price:

Ratio = BTC price ÷ balanced price

As a hypothetical example, if BTC trades at $60,000 and the balanced price is $25,000, the ratio is 2.4. That falls in the “above balanced” zone. A ratio of 2.5 or higher is shown as “2.5x+ above”, and a ratio under 1 means BTC is trading below the balanced price.

A low ratio means the market price sits close to the network’s discounted cost basis. A high ratio means price has moved far above it. The model has been used to frame where cyclical lows might form, not to time tops.

Limits

The inputs depend on on-chain heuristics. Exchange wallet reshuffles, custody migrations and lost coins can distort coin days destroyed and realized value, and the model treats all of these as ordinary spending. Because the balanced price moves slowly, the zone depends mostly on the market price. A zone change usually reflects a price move more than a shift in the underlying floor.

For other cost-based and long-horizon views, compare the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score and the 200 week moving average heatmap.