Here’s How Much Traders See Netflix Stock Moving After Earnings
By Markets & Investing DeskUpdated Nov 10, 2026
Key takeaways
- Options prices implied a post-earnings swing of up to about 8% for Netflix stock, up or down.
- A drop at the low end of that range would have put the shares at their lowest level since September 2024.
- Analysts expected second-quarter revenue of $12.57 billion, up 13.5% from a year earlier, and earnings of 79 cents per share, compared with 72 cents a year ago.
- Netflix shares had lost more than a fifth of their value since the start of the year on concerns about user engagement and a weaker-than-expected revenue outlook.
- Most tracked analysts still rated the stock a buy, with a mean price target well above where the shares were trading.
Ahead of its second-quarter 2026 results, options pricing showed traders expecting Netflix (NFLX) stock to move as much as 8% in either direction by the end of the week. The streamer reports after the closing bell, so the market’s first reaction shows up in after-hours trading and the next regular session. An expected move measures size, not direction: it estimates how far the shares could travel, not which way.
How the expected move is calculated
The expected move is derived from option prices, not analyst forecasts. The common shortcut uses the at-the-money straddle: a call and a put at the strike closest to the share price, both expiring just after the earnings date. Its combined cost reflects how big a move the market is willing to pay for.
The basic formula:
Expected move (%) ≈ straddle price ÷ share price
Hypothetical example: if a stock trades at $100 and the at-the-money call and put for the post-earnings expiration cost $4 each, the straddle costs $8. That implies a move of about 8%, or a range of roughly $92 to $108 by expiration.
The range is an estimate, not a cap: the stock can finish well outside it. Implied volatility also usually falls after the report, a “volatility crush” that can cut option values even when the stock moves.
What Wall Street expects from the report
Beyond the headline revenue and earnings-per-share estimates, analysts flagged several areas that could drive the reaction:
- Subscriber churn. Netflix raised prices on its plans earlier in the year, and JPMorgan analysts said investors would watch whether higher prices pushed more members to cancel.
- Content spending. How much Netflix invests in programming, and what it gets back in engagement, remains central to the growth story.
- Acquisitions. After Netflix dropped its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), analysts said investors would look for signals about future deals.
- Engagement strategy. The Wall Street Journal reported that Netflix was considering adding live channels and bundling its service with other streamers to help grow its subscriber base.
The company’s outlook can matter as much as the quarter itself. A weaker-than-expected revenue forecast was one of the reasons the stock fell earlier in the year, so updated guidance is a likely focus.
Why the report matters for Netflix stock
A strong second-quarter report could improve sentiment around a stock that has lost ground. Analysts were still largely positive going in: 10 of the 14 tracked by Visible Alpha rated Netflix a “buy” or equivalent, and the other four were neutral. Their mean price target of around $109 implied nearly 50% upside from the stock’s level before the report.
That gap between analyst targets and the share price is part of why the event drew attention. A result that eases concerns about engagement and churn could narrow it. A disappointing outlook could test the lower end of the options-implied range.
