U.S. Inflation Rate by President

Search Fintrev

Search our guides, reviews and glossary.

Current Values

Under the table’s convention, inflation under Biden averaged 3.8% a year. That figure is the average of December-over-December changes in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the calendar years 2022 through 2025. The worst calendar year in that window was 6.4%, and the mildest was 2.6%. Measured month by month, the peak came in June 2022, when consumer prices were 9.1% higher than a year earlier. That was the largest 12-month increase in about 40 years.

Every presidential inflation average depends on which years are credited to which president. Here, each president is credited with the years after his inauguration year through the year he leaves office. That convention shifts some results noticeably, most visibly in the Biden versus Trump comparison.

Inflation Under Biden: What Happened

Biden took office in January 2021. At that point the 12-month CPI rate was roughly 1.4%, still depressed from the pandemic slump of 2020. Inflation climbed steeply over 2021 and into 2022. It peaked in mid-2022 and then cooled through 2023 and 2024. When he left office in January 2025, the 12-month rate was about 3.0%. That was well below the peak but still above the Federal Reserve’s long-run target of 2%.

What Drove the Surge

Several forces overlapped:

• Pandemic reopening and supply chains. As the economy reopened, demand for goods recovered faster than factories, shipping and ports could supply them. Shortages pushed prices up across many categories.
• Fiscal stimulus. Biden signed the American Rescue Plan Act in March 2021, a $1.9 trillion package aimed at pandemic recovery. It followed the large relief measures passed in 2020. Economists still debate how much of the later inflation the combined stimulus caused, but it added to demand while supply was constrained.
• Energy prices after the invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sent oil, gasoline and other commodity prices sharply higher. Energy then fed into transportation and production costs well beyond the gas pump.
• Monetary policy timing. The Fed kept rates near zero through 2021 and began raising them aggressively in 2022. Higher rates work with a lag, so the effect on prices came gradually.

When Gas and Inflation Came Down

Gasoline prices peaked in June 2022, the same month as headline CPI, and fell through the second half of that year. Headline inflation followed energy down first. Shelter costs and services prices took longer to cool. That is why the decline from the 2022 peak was gradual rather than a sharp reversal. The Fed began cutting rates in late 2024 as price pressures eased.

Cumulative Inflation vs. Average Inflation

An average annual rate and the total increase in prices answer different questions. The total, or cumulative, change compounds:

Cumulative inflation = (1 + r₁) × (1 + r₂) × … × (1 + rₙ) − 1

Here r is each year’s inflation rate in decimal form. An equivalent method divides the CPI level at the end of the period by the level at the start and subtracts 1.

Hypothetical example: four years of inflation at 6%, 4%, 3% and 3% average 4% a year. The cumulative rise is 1.06 × 1.04 × 1.03 × 1.03 − 1 = about 17.0%, slightly more than 4 × 4%. A household whose income grew 10% over those four years would have lost purchasing power even though its raise “beat” every single year but the first.

To see how much more a basket of goods cost at the end of a term than at the start, use the compounding formula rather than a simple average of annual rates.

Biden vs. Trump: Why the Comparison Depends on the Calendar

The table credits Trump’s first term (2017 to 2021) with the years 2018 through 2021, for an average of 3.2% and a highest year of 7.2%. Biden’s row covers 2022 through 2025. Because 2021 is counted under Trump, the first year of the post-pandemic surge, in which Biden held office from January 20, lands in Trump’s average. Biden’s average, in turn, includes 2025, a year Trump spent almost entirely in office.

Change the assignment rule and the comparison moves. Tables that instead average the monthly year-over-year readings over the exact dates each president served put Trump’s first term below 2.5%. They put Biden’s term near 5%. The underlying CPI data is the same. Only the attribution rule differs.

Hypothetical example of the boundary effect: suppose a president’s four counted years run 2%, 2%, 2% and 7%, and the 7% year is the one shared with a successor. The average is 3.25%. Move that year to the successor’s column and the average drops to 2%. For the successor, swapping a 3% year for that 7% year raises their average by a full percentage point.

Neither convention is wrong. The lagged approach reflects the idea that a new administration’s policies take time to reach prices. The exact-dates approach treats each month as the responsibility of whoever was in office. Comparing figures from different sources without checking the rule mixes the two.

For Trump’s first term on its own terms, the 12-month inflation rate was about 2.5% when he took office in January 2017. It stayed low through 2019. It fell close to zero in the spring of 2020 as the pandemic recession hit, and it recovered to roughly 1.4% by the time he left in January 2021. So inflation did rise over the last six months of that term, but from an unusually low base and to a level still under the Fed’s target.

How the Table Calculates Each President’s Average

The table uses annual CPI-U inflation measured December over December, drawn from Bureau of Labor Statistics data via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). For each calendar year, the rate is the percentage change in the CPI from one December to the next:

Annual inflation = (CPI in December of year t ÷ CPI in December of year t−1) − 1

Each president’s “Average inflation” is the simple mean of those annual rates across the “Years counted” column. “Highest year” and “Lowest year” are the extremes within that same window.

A few consequences follow from this design:

• Inauguration years are excluded and departure years are included. Carter’s row counts 1978 through 1981. His lowest year, 8.9%, therefore comes from a year in which Reagan held office from January 20. Reagan’s average of 3.8% covers 1982 through 1989 and excludes the high inflation of his first year.
• Short terms rest on few data points. Kennedy’s row has two counted years and Ford’s has three. One unusual year moves those averages far more than it would for a two-term president.
• The current term uses a partial year. For a term still in progress, the latest 12-month change stands in for the unfinished calendar year. Trump’s second-term row therefore shows one counted year, so its average, highest and lowest values are identical. That row changes with each monthly CPI release and is not comparable to completed terms. A single partial-year figure says little about a four-year record.
• The early record starts with Truman. Counted years begin in 1948, so Truman’s row covers only the later part of his presidency, which began in 1945.

Averaging inflation by party adds another layer of attribution. It mixes presidents who inherited very different conditions, such as Carter’s energy shocks and Clinton’s calm 1990s, into one number.

Why Other Sources Show Different Numbers

Published “inflation by president” figures differ for three main reasons:

1. Measurement window. December over December, annual averages of monthly index levels, and averages of monthly year-over-year readings all produce different annual figures from the same index.
2. Attribution rule. Lagged calendar years, exact term dates, or full calendar years including the inauguration year.
3. Index choice. Headline CPI-U, seasonally adjusted or not, core CPI (excluding food and energy), or the PCE price index the Fed targets.

Carter’s average shows how much this matters. In this table it is 10.9%. A widely cited version that averages monthly readings over his exact term reports a figure just under 10%. Both say his term had the highest inflation of the postwar era. They differ on the number.

What a President Can and Cannot Do About Inflation

Presidents get credit or blame for inflation, but their direct control is limited.

Monetary policy belongs to the Federal Reserve. The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sets the target range for the federal funds rate. That rate influences borrowing costs across the economy. When inflation runs hot, the FOMC raises rates to slow spending and borrowing. When inflation threatens to fall below the 2% long-run goal, it can ease. The committee has 12 voting members: the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four other Reserve Bank presidents who rotate through one-year terms.

Appointments are the president’s main monetary lever. The president nominates the seven governors, including the chair and vice chairs, and the Senate confirms them. Governors serve long, staggered terms, so a president usually shapes the board gradually. One appointment had outsized consequences: Carter named Paul Volcker Fed chair in 1979. Volcker’s rate increases, which pushed the federal funds rate above 19% in 1981, broke the inflation of that era. Most of the benefit showed up under Reagan.

Fiscal policy is shared with Congress. Tax cuts, spending programs, stimulus checks, tariffs and regulation all affect demand, costs or both. A president can propose and sign these measures, but Congress writes and passes the laws. Large deficit-financed spending during a period of full employment tends to add to price pressure. Budget restraint tends to reduce it.

Many drivers sit outside any administration. Wars, oil supply shocks, pandemics, harvests, global supply chains, labor costs, housing markets and the economic cycle can push inflation far more than a single policy. A president often inherits these conditions and their momentum.

Inflation by President: The Historical Record

The Postwar Years: Truman, Eisenhower and Kennedy

Truman led the shift from a wartime to a peacetime economy. Wage and price controls imposed under the Emergency Price Control Act of 1942 held prices down during World War II. Truman initially worried that ending them would unleash runaway inflation, but in November 1946 he removed all wage and price controls except on rent. He also signed the Employment Act of 1946, which made economic stability an explicit federal responsibility. His counted years swing widely, from 6.0% at the high to −1.8% at the low. The negative figure reflects the deflation of 1949.

Eisenhower ended the Korean War and saw three recessions over his two terms. His administration treated inflation as a primary threat. It favored budget surpluses and avoided stimulating the economy during downturns. Prices were stable through the 1950s, with a counted average of 1.4% and one year of slight deflation (−0.4%).

Kennedy took office during the 1960 recession and responded with higher spending and proposed tax cuts. Inflation stayed low, and his two counted years average 1.4%. That ties Eisenhower for the lowest average in the table.

The Great Inflation: Johnson, Nixon, Ford and Carter

Johnson signed Kennedy’s proposed tax cuts into law in 1964. Combined with spending on the Vietnam War and new domestic programs, they pushed the economy hard. Jobs and business activity grew, and inflation began to rise in the mid-1960s. His counted average is 3.4%, with a high of 5.9%.

Nixon aimed to cool inflation without a recession and largely failed. In 1971 he ended the dollar’s convertibility into gold and imposed wage and price controls, a set of moves known as the Nixon Shock. The dollar weakened, and the 1973 oil embargo hit late in his term. His counted average is 6.7%, and his highest year reached 12.1%.

Ford inherited what became known as stagflation: high inflation together with weak growth and rising unemployment. His administration cut taxes and reduced regulation. The recession ended, but inflation stayed high, with a counted average of 6.3%.

Carter’s term had the highest inflation in the table, a 10.9% average with a peak year of 13.3%. An energy crisis drove gas prices up and caused shortages. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also stayed elevated, so the problem went beyond oil. The misery index (the unemployment rate plus the inflation rate) reached a record 21.98% during his presidency. His administration tried deficit reduction and deregulation to increase competition, but a second energy shock in 1979 overwhelmed those efforts.

Disinflation: Reagan and George H.W. Bush

Under Volcker the Fed held interest rates extremely high in the early 1980s. Inflation fell sharply at the cost of a deep recession. Reagan’s economic program, often called Reaganomics, combined broad tax cuts, higher military spending, reduced domestic spending and deregulation. Inflation stayed far below 1970s levels, with a counted average of 3.8%. Critics point to the larger deficits and national debt of the period.

George H.W. Bush saw inflation rise briefly as oil prices jumped around the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the Gulf War. His highest counted year was 6.3%. The savings and loan crisis contributed to the recession of 1990 to 1991. His counted average matches Reagan’s at 3.8%.

The Low-Inflation Decades: Clinton, George W. Bush and Obama

Clinton’s two terms had no recession and no major war. Inflation stayed contained, with a counted average of 2.4%. His administration’s fiscal policy produced a federal budget surplus of more than $236 billion in fiscal year 2000.

George W. Bush faced the September 11 attacks, Hurricane Katrina and, at the end of his second term, the Great Recession, the worst downturn since the Great Depression. His administration sent tax rebate checks to support spending. Inflation collapsed late in 2008: the 12-month rate was 0.1% in December 2008, and it was negative in several months until October 2009. His counted average is 2.6%, with a high of 4.1% and a low that rounds to zero.

Obama took office during that recession. He signed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, a stimulus package with an estimated cost of about $831 billion whose contribution to the recovery is still debated. Inflation ran low for most of his two terms, at a counted average of 1.7%. That is the lowest since Kennedy and Eisenhower, and his highest counted year was 3.1%. Low inflation in this period was itself a concern, because the Fed generally ran below its 2% target.

The Pandemic Era: Trump’s First Term

Inflation was low from 2017 through 2019. When COVID-19 caused a brief but severe recession in 2020, the administration declared a national emergency and signed relief measures. These included the $2 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. The counted average of 3.2% and the 7.2% highest year reflect the inclusion of 2021.

Trump’s Second Term

Trump began his second term in January 2025. Economic debate in this term has centered on tariffs, tax policy, immigration, federal spending and trade relationships. Tariffs raise the cost of imported goods and inputs. How much of that reaches consumer prices depends on how businesses absorb or pass through the costs.

Limits of Judging Presidents by Inflation

The per-president averages are useful for historical context and weak as a verdict. They assign years by a fixed rule while policy effects arrive with uncertain lags. They give equal weight to a president who inherited an oil shock and one who caused an overheating economy. They also hide the path within a term: a steady 3% and a jump from 1% to 7% can produce similar averages.

Historical Data

Annual CPI-U inflation (December over December), FRED / BLS; partial current year uses the latest 12-month change.

FAQs

The Bottom Line

Anyone comparing presidents on inflation should check the attribution rule, measurement window and price index first, since the same CPI data can rank terms differently. The averages offer useful historical context but make a weak verdict, because the Federal Reserve sets monetary policy, Congress shares fiscal policy, and shocks like wars and pandemics often drive prices. To see how much prices rose over a term, compound the annual rates instead of averaging them.